Indian election 2009

NEW DELHI: The Congress' improved rakings at the hustings tell the story of a resurgent party. Unlike its political rivals, the Congress got both
its plot and script right—whether it was the emphasis on rural India, eschewing the idea of a national alliance, or the decision to go it alone in the Hindi heartland, where the Congress was practically sidelined.

In the run-up to the elections, as early as January, the Congress Working Committee decided to go it alone at the national level. Alliances were to be at the state level, a move that had angered parties that had constituted the UPA.

The constant sniping at the heels by its allies, for being left to fend on their own at the national level, was often interpreted as a move that would hurt the Congress electorally.

However, the reassertion of the party as an entity outside of the UPA, which it essentially described as an alliance of governance, has worked to its favour. That the Congress managed to hold its own and even improved its showing across the country only served to stress that the decision by the Congress leadership to contest by itself helped to script the resurrection story.

Even a bigger gamble was the decision of ‘going solo’ in the Hindi heartland states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. The Congress had been virtually sidelined in the two politically important states.

Despite the scepticism over the efficacy of the decision taken so late in the day, just a month before the election, and the difficulties the Congress faced in fielding candidates, the gamble paid off. Though both these states had once been traditional bastions of the Congress, the party had been practically sidelined. It is in the hastily put together ‘going solo’ script, that the revival story of the Congress is best told.

In Uttar Pradesh, which was being viewed as the BSP’s stronghold, the Congress has succeeded in forcing a rupture in Mayawati’s social engineering project. Sections of the upper caste that had veered towards the BSP are now gravitating back to the Congress. Muslims, a key force in the state’s electoral politics, too have been drawn back to the Congress.

Though the party can't claim to have reclaimed the Muslim vote in full measure, it is now a claimant just like the SP and the BSP. The plan to hit the hustings on its own has helped the Congress build on its existing and loyal base. The mindset in Uttar Pradesh has traditionally been in favour of the Nehru-Gandhi family and the Congress, and the party’s attempt to reassert its place on the state political stage has been rewarded by the people.

In adjoining Bihar, the story of the Congress’ resuscitation may not have translated into wins as it did in Uttar Pradesh. However, the party has increased its vote share. That could script the beginning of a revival story in the state, where the Congress could reclaim its traditional vote banks over a period of time. A resurgence on the lines of Uttar Pradesh may then only be a matter of time and not an impossibility.

The impact of the ‘going solo’ move was felt beyond these two states. The Congress was able to build on its latent vote base, even in states that were BJP strongholds, such as Madhya Pradesh. Despite as many as seven factions within the party’s state unit, the Congress was able to improve its tally, indicating that its traditional support base was slowly consolidating.

If the party’s political gambles paid off, its decision to focus on rural India helped reduce the risk considerably. The focus proved to be a powerful counterpoint to the adverse impact of price rise and unemployment.

Given that 70% of rural India consumes what it produces, the focus on efforts such as the farm loan waiver and national rural employment scheme helped the party gain depth.

It helped the Congress project itself not just as a party concerned with fighting immediate issues, but one that was looking at the long term. It reinforced the message the Congress strategists had been aiming to put across: the story of India’s resurgence lay in rural India, and that the party was well-seized of this idea.